MUNDUAK

Wikipedia Commons. Jakub Hałun. Black Friday. Protest against the anti-abortion law in Krakow

However, many within the KO coalition government (which also includes the centre-right conservative grouping Poland 2050 and the centre-left ‘Lewica’) are opposed to such policies, with divisions in the  coalition government widening as the Presidential elections approach. With the war in Ukraine continuing to cast a shadow over events in the country, Polish politics is dominated by pro-militaristic and anti-migrant  sentiments, with the left becoming further marginalised and failing to set the political agenda.

False Liberalism

The KO-coalition government was elected on the promise that it would reverse some of the most reactionary policies introduced by PiS. Women and young people voted in large numbers for the opposition parties, building on the mass movement of women against the draconian abortion laws implemented by the last government. Tusk presented his most progressive face during the election campaign, promising to liberalise the abortion law, introduce same-sex legal partnerships, reduce subsidies for religious institutions and raise the salaries of public sector workers. Since assuming power, he has not carried through these election pledges. Also the new government’s efforts to ‘redemocratise’ Poland have stalled, with the Tusk government even entrenching some of the authoritarian changes in the country through an unconstitutional takeover of the public media. 

Mililitarism and Migration

The KO government has also deepened the militarist course set by the PiS government. Military spending is being raised to almost 5% of GDP, with the government planning to create one of Europe's largest militaries, by doubling the size of the army to 300 thousand soldiers. Moreover, the government has harnessed the growing anti-migrant sentiment, fueled by the right-wing parties and media in Poland. KO has attacked PiS from the right, accusing it of allowing uncontrolled migration whilst it was in government. The KO government has continued to demonise refugees attempting to enter Poland through its eastern border with Belarus, persisting with the illegal policy of pushbacks and introducing policy that would allow for suspending the right to asylum. The government is also trying to harness the growing hostility within sections of society towards Ukrainians in Poland, announcing that it plans to withdraw the right of Ukrainians not working from claiming child benefits.  

Far-Right Agenda

The far-right is increasingly setting the political agenda in Poland. PiS has backed a relatively unknown candidate, Karol Nawrocki, who has alleged connections to members of criminal and far-right groups. He has recently served as president of the state Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), prioritising removing monuments commemorating the role played by the Red Army in the defeat of Nazi occupation in Poland. Nawrocki is competing with the candidate from the far-right party, Confederation, which combines extreme neo-liberalism, nationalism and conservatism, similar to the AfD in Germany. The party’s candidate, Sławomir Mentzen launched his campaign under the slogan 'We Will Give You Poland Back', pledging to protect the nation from 'eurocommunists' and other ‘globalists’. The party is hostile toward Ukrainians living in Poland and has harnessed the growing dissatisfaction about the Ukrainian government's commemoration of Ukrainian nationalists, who murdered Poles during World War Two.

In such a situation KO’s candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, is trying to compete with his right-wing rivals by positioning himself as a more conservative candidate who is close to ordinary people. Trzaskowski is currently the President of Warsaw, where he has crafted an image of a progressive liberal. Yet, it was Trzaskowski who announced the idea to restrict access of Ukrainians to child benefits, despite previously arguing that Ukrainians should be given any help they need whilst the military conflict with Russia continues. Trzaskowski is therefore cynically adopting a more right-wing conservative political stance in these elections, to try and stave off competition to his right. He is also competing with a candidate from the centre-right party, Szymon Hołownia, which is part of the coalition government.

Trump and Ukraine

Polish politics has further been disturbed by the election of Donald Trump and the opening of negotiations between the USA and Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. The marginalisation of Europe in this process and the attempts by the US administration to secure its economic interests in Ukraine (such as through control of minerals and infrastructure) is causing frictions between in the transatlantic alliance. The pro-USA political consensus in Poland has survived numerous changes in government and was further strengthened by Poland becoming one of the major military and political backers of the US policy during the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration established a permanent US military presence in Poland, with 10,000 US troops stationed in the country as part of a rotational presence. Whilst there is no prospect of the USA withdrawing its military from Poland, the strategic change in its policy towards Ukraine has caused confusion and divisions with the Polish political class. PM Donald Tusk has argued that Europe needs to construct a common European Army and urged other European nations to replicated Poland's soaring military spending. Meanwhile, President Andrzej Duda was the first European leader to meet directly with Trump, meeting him briefly on the sidelines of the CPAC conference in Washington. Whatever symbolic differences may exist between Tusk/KO and Duda/PiS, both sides agree that Poland should remain a staunch strategic ally of the USA and continue the policy of excessive spending on Poland's military.

No Left Turn

The overwhelming right-wing hegemony in Poland, has been facilitated by a weak and disorientated left. The Lewica candidate, Magdalena Biejat, has failed to make any significant inroads in the election campaign so far. The ‘Left’ is the minor partner in a three-way governing coalition, in which it has not achieved any meaningful political successes, whilst its standing as an independent political force has been eroded. The other candidate of the left, Adrian Zandberg, represents the small left-wing party Razem (Together), to which Biejat formerly belonged. His attempts to position himself as a pro-worker and pro-social candidate, distinct from all other political parties in the country, have been undermined by the fact that he and other Razem MPs entered parliament as part of the Lewica slate. Razem only fully broke from ‘Lewica’ and the governing coalition a few months ago, which instigated a split within its parliamentary group (with Biejat amongst those who left Razem). Despite its left social democratic position on many issues, Razem has also assumed a strong militaristic and pro-NATO stance, which blunts its opposition to the right in Poland and allows the far-right to win the support of those who are sceptical towards the government’s strategy on the war in Ukraine. Biejat has even refused to rule out the possibility of Poland sending troops in the future to Ukraine. 

Which Right?

Trzaskowski currently holds a clear lead over his right-wing rivals in the opinion polls. However, with the elections still four months away, this situation could change, particularly if displeasure with the current government grows. The percentage of those declaring their dissatisfaction with the government grew to 43% in January, compared to just 31% who are satisfied with its performance. Nawrocki will be hoping that he can narrow the lead with Trzaskowski before the elections are held in May and then sweep up the votes of his right-wing rivals in the second round. Whatever the outcome of these elections, Polish politics, similar to other European countries,  is currently shifting to the right, fuelled by a  resurgent far-right and unrestrained by a weak  and divided left.